Hey Readers! Or Reader!
March 27, 2008
Posted by Chris
If you are reading this, we want to hear from you. Ask us a question at baseballfaceoff@gmail.com. If we get enough for a mailbag – that’s an easy column for us, so you are definitely encouraged to contact us. Or start a conversation on our forums. At present we have it set up for administrator approval – we promise to get you approved in short order if you apply.
We do want to hear from anyone reading our columns, hear your suggestions, and gather some general feedback. So please go to http://forums.baseballfaceoff.com or send us an email.
Joe and I both enjoyed doing some research and really digging into some lesser-known prospects for our last column. Can you think of any other prospects that will show up in next year’s top 100s? I limited myself to just 3 hitters and 3 pitchers. Other players that I considered include Tony Thomas, a second baseman with the Cubs system, Kevin Ahrens, third baseman for the Blue Jays, Aneury Rodriguez from the Rockies, Cole Rohrbough, pitcher for the Braves, and a few very young players like Michael Almanzar, an infielder for the Red Sox, and other guys with birthdays in the 90s.
Hope you are enjoying the site, and we look forward to hearing from you.
Keeper Dilemmas
Posted By Chris
January 28, 2008
This
is going to be the first instance in which I milk my fantasy dilemmas
for a column. I will probably do it again. The redeeming factor this
time is that it has relevance to a dilemma you may be facing yourself.
How do you decide on keepers?
I play in a dynasty league with
a $260 salary cap, 23 active players, a 5 player reserve list, up to 4
year contracts, and a minor league system built up around a 3-round
draft each year. We are allowed to take one expiring contract and
extend it for 2 years at +$5, and +$6 from the previous contract. There
are a few players worth considering from my team. Their salaries would
be: Carlos Guillen at $20, Brandon Webb at $16, CC Sabathia at $14,
Manny Corpas at $7, and Carlos Marmol at $7. It is a head to head, 6X6
league, counting Runs, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, and SLG for hitters, W, SV,
ERA, WHIP, K, and Holds for pitchers.
Because we count holds,
Marmol can be considered, but he’s the first one to go. He had great
success last year, absolutely incredible. The downside to him is that
his role is uncertain. If he closes for the Cubs he would be a pretty
good deal at $7. Corpas looks to be the closer for the Rockies, and in
this league, he is likely to go for at least $12 or maybe more. But I
can’t count on him to repeat his success, and he is not a better value
than the other two pitchers I could keep.
I love Carlos Guillen.
This year he’ll play first, qualify at shortstop, hit in the middle of
that great Detroit lineup, and is a threat for 100 runs and rbi, 20
homers, 10-20 stolen bases, and solid OBP and Slugging numbers. He
traditionally drops a little low on the radar, and last year went for
$15. He might go for $15-$25. I would usually err on the side of
keeping a hitter, but I happen to have Troy Tulowitzki. Therefore
Guillen is not a priority. He might make a good piece to play at my
utility spot and to shuffle between short, utility, and first base.
None
of these players are as good of a deal as Webb or Sabathia. It is a
pretty good dilemma to be weighing, frankly. They cost roughly the
same, and are both good choices, but it’s a pretty important decision.
The only way to lose is by angering the gods Labrus and Ulnar
Collaterus. I must admit that my gut reaction is to keep Webb. Let’s
look at some stats and see if that first reaction holds up:
Webb, Born May 9, 1979
W IP K ERA WHIP BB/9 K/9 BABIP GB%
2005 14 229.0 172 3.54 1.26 2.32 6.76 .322 Unavailable
2006 16 235.0 178 3.10 1.13 1.91 6.82 .294 68%
2007 18 236.1 194 3.01 1.19 2.74 7.39 .293 64%
Sabathia, Born July 21, 1980
2005 15 196.2 161 4.03 1.26 2.84 7.37 .313 Unavailable
2006 12 192.2 172 3.22 1.17 2.06 8.03 .302 47%
2007 19 241.0 209 3.21 1.14 1.38 7.80 .317 48%
They’re
only one year apart. The salaries are the same. Both play for good
teams. Barring injury, you can expect both to have good seasons.
Neither seems to have been buoyed by a streak of great luck – their
BABIPs (batting average against on balls in play) are not out of range
for their careers. This is a subject for an entire column, but for now
trust me that this means that neither had outlandish good luck last
year. For their basic stats, Sabathia and Webb are just about dead
even. I think we’ll have to look deeper.
If you look toward the
walks and strikeouts per 9 innings stats you’ll see that these pitchers
achieve their success in different ways. Webb strikes out fewer
batters, but draws more groundballs. Sabathia has consistently improved
his control, impressively dropping his walks per nine innings by almost
one-third each of the last two years. Webb is inconsistent with his
walks, but improved his strikeout rate last year.
They are still
really even. Webb has been more consistent with his production from
year to year, whereas Sabathia clearly climbed to another level in
2007. We’re down to a difficult question. Is consistency more reliable
than a breakout season? Unfortunately, that would take a ton of
research to figure out.
For me the players are so close in
production that this comes down to the most difficult quality to
predict: health. The huge jump in the number of innings Sabathia
pitched in 2006 (192.2) to 2007 (241) immediately stands out. That’s
just regular season innings. He pitched 15 more in the post season. To
be fair, Webb pitched 13 innings in the postseason himself, but I don’t
think it’s that big of a deal. The general rule is that a jump in
innings of more than 30 puts pitchers in danger. It most accurately
applies to younger pitchers, but Sabathia pitched 63 more innings in
2007 than 2006, 45 more than his career high. That’s an enormous
difference. He may be in danger of an injury due to this huge increase.
This certainly is not an ironclad rule, and Sabathia is a strong guy.
He might get even better this year, but I bet against it.
Webb
only pitched 16 more innings in 2007, and has been a consistent,
ace-level pitcher over the last three years. For that reason, I think
he’s the safer bet, just a higher-probability move.
The moral
of this story is that sometimes it is really difficult to make keeper
decisions. Do your best to make the best choice, then put it behind you
because now you have to research the rest of the players in advance of
the draft or auction. Now that’s a tough job.
Posted by Chris - January 9, 2008
Fantasy Baseball Is a Great Game
A long time ago I read a book about the first rotisserie baseball league. As a young kid I thought it sounded like loads of fun. A couple of years later I heard my uncles talking about their fantasy teams, and was even more interested. However, at that point I was only 12, and a bit short on funds for league fees.
Fast forward to a few years later. I encountered a computer game called Baseball Mogul, which offered the chance to act as manager and general manager of any big league team. It was (and several versions later, still is) a brilliant game and I have played countless dynasties over the years. If only there were a version for my mac I would never – well, I’d never get any writing done for one thing.
When I was in college I tried one of those salary cap leagues where you compete for points, but everyone can use the same players and there’s a lot of turnover from trying to buy low and sell high. It didn’t impress me as a format. But later I got a chance to play in a 10-team mixed head to head league and I was hooked.
Fantasy baseball is a great game. Something happens every day. The season is long enough that a player can re-strategize in midseason, overcome bad weeks, and even prevail despite a lousy draft or auction and become a winner. Leagues can be shallow enough that there’s no need to be a hardcore fan, or deep enough that you learn every team’s emergency catcher. They can focus on statistics that are part of everyday English or use stats that would puzzle a physicist. The variety of experiences available keep the game from becoming boring.
Since I started playing this game I’ve learned a few things, but I think the central lesson is that there’s no need to panic. If you miss on a player in the draft or auction you will be able to adjust. Before you start bidding on a player, know your limit, and don’t exceed it (there are minor exceptions to this – but only if you’ve been lucky in filling up your roster to that point). Compete in the season for free agents and waiver wire fodder, and of course adjust when your players get injured.
It’s one of my absolute pet peeves when I see other fantasy owners decide to rebuild. They give up before they have to. In keeper or dynasty leagues, don’t decide you won’t try to contend before the draft or auction! If you focus on getting the players you need and pay attention during the season, you really can compete during the season. Most of your can’t miss prospects won’t ever be better than Reggie Sanders (not to diminish Reggie Sanders – he’s had a tremendous career - but in a given year you can replace his production). Be careful not to fall in love with prospects. For a real life example, think of the Tampa Bay Rays (that just looks wrong, doesn’t it?). They’ve been 2 to 3 years away for about 8 years. Don’t be the fantasy Pittsburgh Pirates.
I can understand trading your chips in come June or July. Not in April, or worse, February. Teams change closers all the time. You can pick one up when they change. It’s not like Manny Corpas slipped through anyone’s fingers on draft day 2007. Where did Josh Hamilton come from last year? Who expected that out of Ryan Braun or Hunter Pence? Did Magglio Ordonez outproduce his projections for 07? Carlos Pena? On a lower scale – Jerry Owens and Reggie Willits stole 32 and 27 bases, respectively, which is awfully helpful. Fausto Carmona wasn’t drafted in your league, I’m guessing. Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Bannister outperformed a lot of $10 pitchers. That’s just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to players you could have picked up during the season. So – don’t give up before you start.
Besides, who wants to play for next year when you can try to make it this year? You’ll have more fun, and might make a move up the standings.
