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Faceoff

May 14
Part One of Two

Hey there, reader(s?). Sorry for the unplanned hiatus. I’m happy to tell you we’re back with a new column. If you like what we do email comments or questions to baseballfaceoff@gmail.com, or follow the links to our forum and start a discussion.

In one of our recent columns, Joe and I wrote about the tantalizing temptations of April, those hitters who have started off, as Jason McElwain might say, hotter than a pistol. Well, this is the time to think about whether some of the early season superstars have the power to sustain their success. Sure, hitters like Albert Pujols are off to hot starts (elbow injury be damned) – but it would be boring to write about what stars we expect to continue hitting well. What about the upstarts? Who can be expected to maintain their success? Who’s bound to drop off? That’s what this faceoff is about. I’m going to start this one, and Joe will respond in a couple of days.

I’m going to discuss these three players:
Name                  Runs    Home Runs   RBI   Steals  AVG        OPS
Nate McLouth     31              9              29         3       .307        .990
Ryan Church       28              7              26         1       .319        .917
Ryan Doumit      21              5               15         0      .350         .955

Let’s start this discussion with Nate McLouth, the number 7 overall fantasy performer according to Yahoo!: He’s a legitimate threat in all fantasy categories. And he hasn’t been lucky – his batting average on balls in play (batting average when he doesn’t hit a homer or strike out) is .306, which is a pretty reasonable value, really. And he has been in a bit of a slump. He has just one hit in his last fifteen at-bats.

McLouth was one of those hitters that didn’t make a ton of noise during the season in 2007, but really jumped out as a sleeper for 2008 during draft preparations. He hit 13 homers? Well, for a part time outfielder, I guess that’s okay. He stole 22 bases? In only 329 at bats? Now we’re talking.

In spring training the question was whether or not he would get playing time. He’s making the most of his chance, and I see him being a strong contributor throughout the year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drop off a bit on homers and batting average, but he could definitely pick it up with a few more stolen bases. I expect him to settle in as a good #2 outfielder for any fantasy team.

Moving on, we have another player who has also had difficulty getting playing time in the past, Ryan Church. He’s been on a star’s pace – just multiply his numbers by about 4 and you’ll see that he’s on track for more than 100 runs and rbi. His line drive percentage is astronomical at 29%. Most players don’t go much over 20%. And his batting average on balls in play is about .380, which is pretty high, probably due to that amazing line drive percentage.

Church is a player I like, but I don’t see him keeping this up all year. Last year he hit .272, and had an OPS of .813. I can definitely see him splitting the difference and settling in at about .850, which would make him a solid outfielder. I expect a bit of a regression – that he won’t meet the 100/30/100 pace. He should be a solid contributor the rest of the way, but not a star.

Then there’s Ryan Doumit. Holy cow, he’s hitting .350. The Pirates’ catcher is better than halfway to career highs in almost every major category after an amazing start. If he could keep up this pace he’d be a fantasy savior at catcher. Well – it’s not going to happen. Not only did he break his thumb in a game against the Cardinals the other day, he’s been quite lucky. His line drive percentage is about 19 percent, and his batting average on balls in play is at .369. On average, the relationship is line drive percentage + .120 = BABIP.

When Doumit comes back from his injury – don’t expect him to pick up where he left off. He might perform at a fairly high level for a catcher – but he’s not going to continue playing like a star. He should regress even more than Church does.

There is a trick to identifying true breakouts as they happen. For every Chris Shelton who blows up at the beginning of a season, there’s a budding star that actually did jump to the next level. I think McLouth is one of the guys who is emerging as a fantasy force, while Church and Doumit are due to drop off a little, and a lot, respectively.

Joe, it’s your turn, why don’t you tell me who else is a May mirage?





Previous Articles:

Faceoff


Part One of Two

Posted by Chris, April 13, 2008


Joe, you know that the most popular type of fantasy baseball league is the 5 X 5 league (categories include runs scored, rbi, homers, steals, and batting average for hitters, wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP for pitchers). Most rankings and analysis that you’ll read focus on that type of league. The less popular categories can be a lot of fun, and offer players a chance to develop a real advantage over their competitors. I love holds, for example.

For this faceoff, let’s talk about the hold as a fantasy baseball category. Do you think it makes for an interesting category? How do you manage your team to secure as many as possible? Because I lost the coin flip – I’ll start.

Holds are one of my favorite categories. Holds are one-step removed from a save, awarded to pitchers who enter a game with less than a 3 run lead or less, get an out, and exit without giving up the lead. Even if runners he put on base later score, that’s a hold. Even if he gets both the loss and the hold. Um, that’s kind of strange, but definitely interesting. Technically, a pitcher could also get the win and a hold in the same game as well, at least according to Yahoo’s definition. Because holds are actually unofficial stats the definition can vary depending on who’s recording them. But don’t think about it too hard. Essentially, you can think of a hold as a save for the seventh or eighth inning.

Remember that closers don’t have to pitch well to get a save, either. If holds are not counted in a league, then that eliminates almost all value for relievers who are not closers. Because setup guys are important to a regular team, I like it when they matter on your fantasy team. Holds also require that you pay attention to what’s happening in the MLB. As with any uncommon stat, this is an opportunity to grind out an edge over your competitors. Knowledge picked up while researching holds will apply in your other leagues, too. If you are following holds, you’ll know the guys who are next in line for save opportunities when a closer loses his job.

Because the hold is a bit elusive and difficult to predict, you will need to put in some effort to figure out who should be on your team. Unlike the top closers, you can’t really predict the top setup men from year to year. Only 4 guys have been in the top 20 in holds each of the past 3 years, Scott Linebrink, Scot Shields, Bob Howry, and Chad Qualls. 6 more have been up there in at least two of the last three years, Mike Timlin, Juan Rincon, Scott Schoenweis, Brandon Lyon, Justin Speier, and Aaron Heilman. What this tells you is that there’s a lot of turnover, so you don’t want to look solely at past performance to predict this year’s holds totals.

Looking at the past three years of holds leaderboards – you can make a few generalizations. There seem to be a bunch of pitchers who end up with totals in the high teens, so that’s your replacement level setup guy. It’s very likely that you would be able to find someone like that on the waiver wire.

About 20 pitchers a year end up with 20 or more holds. The league leader usually ends up with about 35. The players who gather 20 plus holds might have an ERA up over 4 or even 5, though that’s rare. Many players with high hold totals appear to have run hot streaks to get there – ridiculously low ERAs coming out of nowhere compared to previous performance. Some teams might put a couple of players on that leaderboard, and that doesn’t seem to correlate particularly well with team wins.

These observations reinforce the idea that holds are difficult to predict. Think about how many setup men most teams in your league will be carrying. Is it 2-3? In that case, you probably want to aim for a team total around 50-60. If you can get that many during the season, you should be fine. But, unlike many other fantasy categories the fight for holds does not end with the auction or draft.

Holds, more than any other category, require you to do research during the season. Watch the box scores and pitching stats. The guys that get holds will change radically as the year develops. The top setup men in August are quite likely not to be at the top of the season leaderboard. Teams will go with the hot hand quite often. You’ll want to search for things like league leaders in holds for the past week or month to get an idea of who are the go to guys at the moment. Don’t just rely on the league leaders for the season. That’s how you find a guy like Ryan Franklin last year, 10th in the majors in holds with 25. 

Another thing you can do is watch the progression of young players. A guy like Rafael Perez started his 2007 season with about 20 innings and 1 earned run. He went from pitching the fourth and fifth innings to later innings when the team was trailing, and finally to protecting leads in the seventh and eighth innings. In the last month or two of last season, he was a top set up man (part of a shutdown setup duo with Rafael Betancourt). The lesson here is that you need to use up your holds guys and toss them out when they stop accumulating holds. Make sure your team is flexible enough to accommodate these types of changes, and don’t keep favorites.

Holds are a fun category. They take a little bit of effort – but a dedicated fantasy player can win easily. This is also a category that your team can excel in, even if you don’t have any setup men at this point in the season. There are lots of ways to gather holds. Below is a list of the top holds candidates, a list of sleepers, and another list of players to watch later in the season.

Holds For Now:
Scot Shields, Los Angeles Angels
Derrick Turnbow, Milwaukee Brewers
Rafael Betancourt, Cleveland Indians
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs

Sleepers/Underrated:
Scott Downs, Toronto Blue Jays
Casey Jannsen, Toronto Blue Jays
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals
Denny Bautista, Detroit Tigers

Holds Candidates For Later This Season:
Joel Zumaya, Detroit Tigers
Ross Ohlendorf, New York Yankees
Jensen Lewis, Cleveland Indians
Seth McClung, Milwaukee Brewers



Part Two of Two

Posted by Joe, April 23, 2008

In our last faceoff, Chris and I both talked about evaluating our teams early in the season and making adjustments as you see fit. In an 18 team H2H 6X6 dynasty league, I’ve done just that and will discuss my strategy in this league given the team that I have fielded.

Before we get started, here is a little more information about this league. The hitting categories are R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, and SLG and the pitching categories are W, SV, Holds, K, ERA, and WHIP. I consistently punt saves in this league (this is its fourth year of existence) and have finished 6th, 2nd, and 2nd respectively in each of the first three years.  We have 23 active roster spots and 5 reserve spots. I’ve included the number of years left on each player’s contract, and the effective cost of each player after the player’s name. We have a soft $260 salary cap (my cap this year is $272 due to trades).

Roster as of 4/7/08
C-            Geovany Soto (5, $2)
1B-         Albert Pujols (1, $63)
2B-          Dan Uggla (1, $9)
3B-          David Wright (2, $32)
SS-           Derek Jeter (4, $19)
LF-          Jack Cust (4, $16)
CF-          Andruw Jones (4, $16)
RF-          Bobby Abreu (3, $18)
UT-         Conor Jackson (4, $4)                                                    

P-            Chien-Ming Wang (1, $7)
P-            Derek Lowe (3, $12)
P-            Tom Gorzelanny (3, $6)
P-            Edinson Volquez (5, $2)
P-            Kevin Millwood (2, $2)
P-            Joba Chamberlain (5, $2)
P-            J.C. Romero (1, $2)
P-            Scott Proctor (1, $3)
P-            Ross Ohlendorf (1, $2)

BN-         Bengie Molina (1, $5)
BN-         Mark Ellis (3, $2)
BN-         Austin Kearns (3, $12)
BN-         Melky Cabrera (3, $3)
BN-         Paul Maholm (3, $2)

PL-          Cliff Lee (1, $2)
PL-          Randy Wolf (1, $2)
PL-          Jonathan Sanchez (5, $2)
PL-          Homer Bailey (5, $2)
PL-          Eugenio Velez (1, $2)

Looking first at my hitters, I feel comfortable in my ability to compete in every category on a weekly basis. In fact, I’ll be pretty upset when I lose anything but SB (I, of course, was swept in every hitting category last week!).  When you look closely, though, you can see that I have no help at SS or 3B if Jeter or Wright were to be injured. And in an 18-team league, waiver wire options are not pretty (Christian Guzman anyone?).

Looking next at my pitching, I am obviously not going to compete for saves and will likely never win that category. I understood this heading out of the auction and have no concerns about punting a category in a very deep H2H league. When I look at my starting pitching, one word comes to mind: mediocre. The most strikeouts I could hope for out of any of my five established starters on my active roster would be 160 or so (Millwood) and Maholm and Wang will probably strikeout a total of 175 batters. Gorzelanny and Lowe could each strike out just shy of 150 batters each, but this is certainly not earth shattering. Losing Kelvim Escobar to injury this season really hurt the strikeout potential of my pitching staff (I normally have six starters active compared to the five that most managers use) and has me gambling on a big season from Edison Volquez. I like his upside and think that he’ll strike guys out, but I don’t feel confident in a great season. My team ERA and WHIP will likely depend on Millwood, Volquez, Maholm, and Gorzelanny as Lowe and Wang are pretty consistent. In a weekly H2H league, I figure that I’ll have a few good weeks and a few bad weeks and a lot of mediocre weeks, and will hope to steal as many categories as I can by protecting early weekly leads in ERA and WHIP by picking and choosing matchups later in the week, or by throwing every starter out there to get wins and strikeouts (I am starting more guys than they are!) if my ERA and WHIP are awful early in the week. If I can average winning two out of these four categories every week (W, K, ERA, WHIP) I’d be happy. I suspect that this is fairly reasonable, actually. Finally, regarding holds, I’m very, very comfortable with Joba Chamberlain and J.C. Romero (and Chamberlain will give me strikeouts), but am disappointed with how Scott Proctor and Ross Ohlendorf have been used thusfar (in non-hold situations). I feel that if I can average winning five hitting categories per week, I hope to address other concerns with my team as the year goes on, but for today, I’m focusing on addressing my holds situation.

I like to dominate holds in a league that uses them, and I tend to employ very specific strategies to do so: I prefer quantity over quality, and I never, ever want to overpay for my holds. In the past few years, I’ve scoured the waiver wire and added the likes of Heath Bell, Manny Delcarmen, and J.C. Romero and have been very successful without spending significant auction dollars on top-tier holds guys (each year, at least one middle reliever exceeds $10 in our league). The most I have ever paid is $3. If I were in a more shallow league, I’d probably modify my strategy some to pursue more high profile relievers, but my strategy in this league is to get four holds guys and six starters (remember, I punt saves) and hope that it does the trick. As my roster sits today, I have two new holds guys that I have obtained via free agency, and I have released Proctor and Ohelendorf. I grabbed Brian Bruney when it became obvious that his role was improving in the Yankee pen. A good holds guy on a team that will win a lot of games can be pretty powerful. I also like to stack a couple of guys on the same team (only a good team though!) because I can grab two holds in one game (like I did just a few days ago with Bruney and Chamberlain) or get them on successive days (if fatigue plays a factor in the bullpen). The other guy I grabbed is Leo Nunez, who got off to a fast start, but is now starting to disappoint me.

In pursuing holds, I tend to avoid situational guys, and latch on to the standard seventh and eighth inning guys. I also like guys that have high K/9 ratios (don’t we all?) because you never know when those extra strikeouts will come in handy. I constantly check my free agent pool for holds and am never satisfied with who I have. I treat these guys as disposable players. I only keep them as long as they are doing good things (I’m talking to you, Jamie Walker!). Obviously, I won’t be dropping Chamberlain anytime soon, but if Bruney, Romero, or Nunez doesn’t pan out, I’ll try someone else. There are no loyalties in my bullpen! You are officially on notice, Mr. Nunez!

Finally, you must stay vigilant. If these guys were good enough to be closers, they’d generally have that job already (there are some obvious exceptions to this: Chamberlain, Okajima, and Broxton come to mind). Today’s ace set-up man is often two consecutive blown saves away from being buried in the fifth inning of a 14-2 blowout loss. Keep aware of your players’ usage (inning and game situation), and don’t be afraid to make a move when you need to (they’re only coming in non-hold situations).

Well, it’s simple, but that’s my strategy on holds. Until next time, keep vigilant, and keep checking back for more baseball faceoffs!

*Joe would also like to note that Cliff Lee and Randy Wolf are now on his active roster, while the Pirates starters have been jettisoned to his PL.











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